tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:27 pm at Cleveland); 3 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 51% (calm day: 28%). Best bet: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 21:10, 28% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
UA 592 United CLE 19:38 LAX 21:45 26% 6% 0.2% no record
AA 650 American Flight history → CLE 18:43 LAX 20:26 47% 12% 0.2% 63%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Cleveland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → CLE 19:26 → MSP 20:37DL 1449 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 21:59 → LAX 23:53DL 2103 7h 27m 85% 63%
UnitedDetails → CLE 17:40 → SFO 19:55UA 234 2h 42m San Francisco SFO 22:37 → LAX 00:19 +1UA 2179 9h 39m 99% 63%
UnitedDetails → CLE 19:55 → IAD 21:19UA 3433 · flown by Republic 1h 01m Dulles IAD 22:20 → LAX 00:57 +1UA 1385 8h 02m 80% 62%
UnitedDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673 2h 46m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 2060 9h 04m 95% 60%
AmericanDetails → CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:59AA 4909 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 9h 47m 98% 57%
AmericanDetails → CLE 19:31 → PHL 21:09AA 5862 · flown by Piedmont 1h 13m Philadelphia PHL 22:22 → LAX 01:12 +1AA 3235 8h 41m 82% 45%
AlaskaDetails → CLE 17:32 → SEA 19:41AS 216 1h 28m Seattle SEA 21:09 → LAX 23:52AS 524 9h 20m 80% 44%
DeltaDetails → CLE 18:37 → ATL 20:43DL 880 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → LAX 00:30 +1DL 575 8h 53m 89% 25%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → CLE 18:54 → PHL 20:38AA 5287 · flown by PSA 1h 44m Philadelphia PHL 22:22 → LAX 01:12 +1AA 3235 9h 18m 61% 36%
SouthwestDetails → CLE 18:55 → DEN 20:10WN 2887 1h 01m Denver DEN 21:11 → LAX 22:38WN 3987 6h 43m 55% 21%
AmericanDetails → CLE 19:52 → DFW 21:48AA 1682 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → LAX 00:04 +1AA 2038 7h 12m 52% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON