Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:35 pm at Cleveland); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, YX 4505 at 20:01, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YX 4505 Republic	CLE 20:01	LGA 21:49	28%	14%	0.7%	no record
DL 5174 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CLE 19:26	LGA 21:14	46%	28%	18.8%	54%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLE 17:50 → BOS 19:58DL 5641 · flown by Republic	2h 02m Boston	BOS 22:00 → LGA 23:23DL 5840 · flown by Republic	5h 33m	87%	68%
American Details →	CLE 17:39 → DCA 19:11AA 5470 · flown by PSA	3h 27m Washington	DCA 22:38 → LGA 00:03 +1AA 4719 · flown by Republic	6h 24m	86%	61%
United Details →	CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:44UA 1673	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 20:09 → LGA 23:29UA 2827	5h 24m	84%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CLE 19:59 → DCA 21:30AA 5132 · flown by PSA	1h 08m Washington	DCA 22:38 → LGA 00:03 +1AA 4719 · flown by Republic	4h 04m	56%	40%
American Details →	CLE 18:05 → ORD 18:59AA 4909 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:59 → LGA 23:21AA 679	5h 16m	61%	37%
Delta Details →	CLE 19:59 → DTW 21:04DL 4957 · flown by Endeavor	46m Detroit	DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603	3h 41m	39%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON