Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:09 pm at Charlotte); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 428 at 17:05, with a 38% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 428 Southwest	CLT 17:05	DAL 18:59	38%	7%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	CLT 18:00 → MDW 19:00WN 914	2h 15m Chicago	MDW 21:15 → DAL 23:40WN 2893	6h 40m	92%	67%
Delta Details →	CLT 16:49 → ATL 18:10DL 3032	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → DAL 22:25DL 1104	6h 36m	93%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON