Today: AA 2794 at 20:07 is the safest bet, 40% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43–50%.

Safest bet today AA 2794 CLT 20:07 → EWR 22:00 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest AA 1071 CLT 18:21 → EWR 20:30 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 58% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2794 American Flight history →	CLT 20:07	EWR 22:00	40%	24%	0.5%	61%
UA 3468 United flown by Republic Flight history →	CLT 17:51	EWR 19:59	43%	13%	1.0%	68%worse than usual
AA 997 American	CLT 19:08	EWR 21:14	48%	24%	0.6%	no record
AA 1071 American Flight history →	CLT 18:21	EWR 20:30	50%	24%	0.6%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON