Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45%, against 34% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1660 at 15:42, 39%.

Safest bet today AA 1660 CLT 15:42 → MCO 17:31 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time Riskiest F9 2451 CLT 20:02 → MCO 22:01 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 45% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 34% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1660 American Flight history →	CLT 15:42	MCO 17:31	39%	19%	0.7%	51%
AA 1879 American Flight history →	CLT 22:29	MCO 00:17	40%	19%	0.8%	64%
AA 1783 American Flight history →	CLT 19:05	MCO 21:00	43%	22%	0.7%	46%
AA 669 American	CLT 16:08	MCO 17:57	46%	18%	0.7%	no record
AA 3200 American Flight history →	CLT 20:15	MCO 22:00	46%	19%	0.7%	61%
AA 612 American Flight history →	CLT 18:05	MCO 20:01	47%	22%	0.7%	54%
F9 1555 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 22:59	MCO 00:54	48%	27%	1.4%	76%worse than usual
AA 1682 American Flight history →	CLT 16:57	MCO 18:38	49%	18%	0.7%	64%worse than usual
F9 2451 Frontier Flight history →	CLT 20:02	MCO 22:01	49%	27%	1.3%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON