Today: OH 5081 at 22:32 is the safest bet, 35% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40–46%.

Safest bet today OH 5081 CLT 22:32 → MYR 23:43 · 35% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3123 CLT 20:44 → MYR 21:43 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 39% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 7 flights that already left today are not shown.


OH 5081 PSA	CLT 22:32	MYR 23:43	35%	11%	1.3%	no record
AA 2886 American Flight history →	CLT 18:52	MYR 20:03	40%	14%	0.6%	68%
AA 1085 American Flight history →	CLT 21:02	MYR 22:13	40%	14%	0.6%	70%worse than usual
AA 1417 American Flight history →	CLT 18:50	MYR 19:57	43%	16%	0.6%	72%worse than usual
AA 2212 American Flight history →	CLT 16:41	MYR 17:47	44%	16%	0.6%	60%
AA 3123 American Flight history →	CLT 20:44	MYR 21:43	46%	14%	0.6%	65%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON