tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:41 pm at Columbus); 2 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 19:20, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 51% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2861 United Flight history → CMH 19:31 SFO 21:37 38% 11% 0.3% 5%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Columbus). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → CMH 17:55 → ORD 18:34UA 545 3h 01m Chicago ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106 9h 37m 93% 66%
UnitedDetails → CMH 19:40 → IAD 21:09UA 4593 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Dulles IAD 22:21 → SFO 01:15 +1UA 367 8h 35m 89% 62%
DeltaDetails → CMH 19:20 → MSP 20:27DL 2113 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 21:40 → SFO 23:46DL 2089 7h 26m 82% 62%
AmericanDetails → CMH 18:00 → LAX 19:44AA 1686 2h 48m Los Angeles LAX 22:32 → SFO 23:59AA 6510 · flown by SkyWest 8h 59m 91% 54%
AlaskaDetails → CMH 18:07 → SEA 20:15AS 450 1h 27m Seattle SEA 21:42 → SFO 23:59AS 411 8h 52m 84% 52%
SouthwestDetails → CMH 19:01 → LAS 20:24WN 2721 2h 11m Las Vegas LAS 22:35 → SFO 00:15 +1WN 2345 8h 14m 84% 51%
AmericanDetails → CMH 18:00 → PHX 19:09AA 1689 1h 14m Phoenix PHX 20:23 → SFO 22:23AA 686 7h 23m 84% 40%
DeltaDetails → CMH 18:39 → ATL 20:34DL 2280 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → SFO 00:36 +1DL 656 8h 57m 87% 37%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → CMH 20:05 → MDW 20:20WN 1200 1h 11m Chicago MDW 21:31 → SFO 00:10 +1WN 2199 7h 05m 73% 42%
DeltaDetails → CMH 18:15 → JFK 20:29DL 5650 · flown by Republic 46m New York JFK 21:15 → SFO 00:53 +1DL 1732 9h 38m 51% 29%
AmericanDetails → CMH 20:05 → DFW 21:48AA 2337 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → SFO 00:43 +1AA 446 7h 38m 63% 26%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON