Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 39–48% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today MQ 3928 COU 19:52 → DFW 21:48 · 39% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MQ 3402 COU 18:28 → DFW 20:27 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 44% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 48% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


MQ 3928 Envoy	COU 19:52	DFW 21:48	39%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 3890 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	COU 19:26	DFW 21:20	46%	10%	1.3%	71%worse than usual
MQ 3402 Envoy	COU 18:28	DFW 20:27	48%	14%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON