Today: YX 4739 at 17:04 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 47%.

Safest bet today YX 4739 CVG 17:04 → DCA 18:45 · 33% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5647 CVG 17:06 → DCA 18:47 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 38% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 4739 Republic	CVG 17:04	DCA 18:45	33%	9%	0.4%	no record
OH 5647 PSA	CVG 17:06	DCA 18:47	47%	20%	0.8%	no record
DL 5134 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	CVG 17:10	DCA 18:46	46%	20%	4.7%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON