Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 56–63% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 1360 DAL 20:11 → DCA 00:02 · 56% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1344 DAL 16:53 → DCA 20:43 · 63% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 59% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 53% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1360 Southwest	DAL 20:11	DCA 00:02	56%	10%	0.4%	no record
WN 1295 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 19:05	DCA 22:55	58%	14%	0.4%	22%
WN 3014 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:55	DCA 20:50	60%	14%	0.6%	24%
WN 1344 Southwest	DAL 16:53	DCA 20:43	63%	15%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON