Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:11 pm at Dallas); 1 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 46–49% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 1286 Southwest	DAL 20:30	FLL 00:20	46%	12%	0.5%	no record
WN 2902 Southwest	DAL 16:01	FLL 19:56	49%	9%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	1h 51m Chicago	MDW 19:56 → FLL 23:56WN 3073	7h 06m	88%	60%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → FLL 00:39 +1DL 1229	7h 40m	95%	58%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:15 → HOU 17:30WN 39	3h 01m Houston	HOU 20:31 → FLL 00:03 +1WN 2032	6h 48m	98%	55%
Southwest Details →	DAL 16:53 → HOU 18:13WN 41	2h 27m Houston	HOU 20:40 → FLL 00:10 +1WN 4825	6h 17m	96%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 15:50 → MDW 18:05WN 1359	1h 10m Chicago	MDW 19:15 → FLL 23:15WN 2777	6h 25m	71%	48%
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:35 → HOU 19:50WN 49	50m Houston	HOU 20:40 → FLL 00:10 +1WN 4825	4h 35m	43%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON