Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 53%, against 40% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1521 at 22:15, 47%.

Safest bet today WN 1521 DAL 22:15 → MCO 01:55 · 47% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1161 DAL 17:51 → MCO 21:32 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 9 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1521 Southwest	DAL 22:15	MCO 01:55	47%	16%	0.8%	no record
WN 4596 Southwest	DAL 21:01	MCO 00:39	50%	19%	0.9%	no record
WN 3736 Southwest	DAL 20:25	MCO 00:10	52%	24%	1.0%	no record
WN 3282 Southwest	DAL 16:30	MCO 20:20	54%	19%	0.8%	no record
WN 1323 Southwest	DAL 17:25	MCO 21:10	55%	19%	0.8%	no record
WN 1387 Southwest	DAL 19:58	MCO 23:38	55%	22%	1.0%	no record
WN 1161 Southwest	DAL 17:51	MCO 21:32	60%	23%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON