Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:27 pm at Dallas); 2 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 4577 at 15:50, with a 51% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 4577 Southwest	DAL 15:50	MIA 19:40	51%	12%	0.7%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Dallas). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DAL 16:15 → HOU 17:30WN 39	3h 40m Houston	HOU 21:10 → MIA 00:40 +1WN 4859	7h 25m	98%	56%
Delta Details →	DAL 15:59 → ATL 19:14DL 512	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 56m	95%	48%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	DAL 18:35 → HOU 19:50WN 49	1h 20m Houston	HOU 21:10 → MIA 00:40 +1WN 4859	5h 05m	74%	42%
Delta Details →	DAL 18:39 → ATL 22:00DL 2780	53m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	5h 16m	47%	24%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON