Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
WN 4859 · HOU → MIA
departs 9:10 PM CT · arrives 12:40 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 31%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at HOU that day
↑
9pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.19 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.