Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
WN 4859 · HOU → MIA
departs 9:00 PM CT · arrives 12:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 51% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.