Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
WN 4859 · HOU → MIA
departs 7:15 PM CT · arrives 10:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 41%
Mon 10/5 30%
Fri 10/9 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at HOU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.29 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.