Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 72%, against 50% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1439 at 21:00, 67%.

Safest bet today WN 1439 DAL 21:00 → PHX 21:38 · 67% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3674 DAL 22:55 → PHX 23:25 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Weather 72% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 50% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 12 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1439 Southwest	DAL 21:00	PHX 21:38	67%	14%	0.5%	no record
WN 1363 Southwest	DAL 20:35	PHX 21:00	70%	14%	0.6%	no record
WN 1798 Southwest	DAL 22:35	PHX 23:12	75%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 3674 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:55	PHX 23:25	75%	19%	0.6%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON