Today: WN 843 at 21:35 is the safest bet, 38% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 43–60%.

Safest bet today WN 843 DAL 21:35 → OAK 23:15 · 38% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1430 DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10 · 60% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 51% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 17 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 843 Southwest	DAL 21:35	OAK 23:15	38%	11%	0.2%	no record
UA 454 United Flight history →	DFW 15:21	SFO 17:13	43%	13%	0.3%	78%worse than usual
WN 1454 Southwest	DAL 21:21	SJC 23:06	43%	14%	0.6%	no record
AA 2775 American	DFW 22:09	SFO 00:05	45%	12%	0.5%	no record
UA 2413 United Flight history →	DFW 15:37	SFO 17:45	47%	15%	0.3%	50%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 20:14	SJC 22:10	47%	19%	0.4%	66%worse than usual
AA 446 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	SFO 00:43	48%	14%	0.5%	50%
AA 1940 American Flight history →	DFW 21:24	SJC 22:58	50%	18%	0.6%	60%
UA 1273 United Flight history →	DFW 19:54	SFO 21:46	52%	16%	0.2%	15%
UA 2330 United Flight history →	DFW 19:53	SFO 21:42	55%	16%	0.2%	71%worse than usual
AA 2522 American Flight history →	DFW 20:15	SFO 22:16	55%	15%	0.4%	26%
AA 2333 American	DFW 17:38	SFO 19:33	56%	19%	0.6%	no record
AA 2228 American Flight history →	DFW 20:44	SFO 22:28	58%	17%	0.6%	20%
AA 3072 American Flight history →	DFW 17:52	SFO 19:39	58%	19%	0.6%	39%
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SFO 22:59	58%	24%	2.2%	55%worse than usual
AA 2810 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	SFO 17:59	60%	20%	0.6%	43%
AA 1430 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SFO 21:10	60%	19%	0.6%	52%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON