Today: WN 1435 at 11:26 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–54%.

Safest bet today WN 1435 DAL 11:26 → OAK 13:20 · 25% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1430 DFW 19:28 → SFO 21:10 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 1435 Southwest	DAL 11:26	OAK 13:20	25%	4%	0.2%	no record
AA 2046 American Flight history →	DFW 09:10	SJC 11:06	26%	8%	0.5%	77%
UA 1922 United	DFW 09:17	SFO 11:04	31%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 2572 American Flight history →	DFW 09:15	SJC 10:49	31%	9%	0.5%	76%
UA 454 United Flight history →	DFW 15:21	SFO 17:13	35%	14%	0.2%	78%worse than usual
AA 1849 American Flight history →	DFW 08:40	SFO 10:28	36%	9%	0.5%	51%
UA 2413 United Flight history →	DFW 15:37	SFO 17:46	36%	18%	0.3%	50%
AA 2309 American	DFW 08:38	SFO 09:54	39%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2834 American Flight history →	DFW 11:56	SJC 13:52	39%	13%	0.6%	75%worse than usual
WN 1454 Southwest	DAL 21:21	SJC 23:06	41%	16%	0.8%	no record
AA 446 American Flight history →	DFW 22:59	SFO 00:43	41%	12%	1.2%	50%
AA 2775 American	DFW 22:10	SFO 00:05	41%	12%	1.3%	no record
UA 1712 United Flight history →	DFW 11:02	SFO 12:51	42%	14%	0.2%	31%
AA 436 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	SJC 13:33	42%	14%	0.5%	61%
UA 2330 United Flight history →	DFW 19:53	SFO 21:43	46%	13%	0.9%	71%worse than usual
UA 1273 United Flight history →	DFW 19:54	SFO 21:46	46%	13%	0.9%	15%
AA 2325 American Flight history →	DFW 13:15	SFO 15:03	46%	13%	0.5%	81%worse than usual
AA 2997 American Flight history →	DFW 13:15	SFO 14:58	46%	14%	0.5%	54%
F9 3999 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SFO 22:59	46%	19%	2.1%	55%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 20:15	SJC 22:10	47%	12%	1.2%	66%worse than usual
AA 2522 American Flight history →	DFW 20:16	SFO 22:16	48%	14%	1.2%	26%
AA 2387 American Flight history →	DFW 11:24	SFO 13:06	48%	15%	0.6%	57%
AA 2810 American Flight history →	DFW 16:17	SFO 17:59	49%	18%	0.6%	43%
AA 2333 American	DFW 17:39	SFO 19:33	50%	15%	0.7%	no record
AA 3072 American Flight history →	DFW 17:52	SFO 19:39	50%	18%	0.7%	39%
AA 1940 American Flight history →	DFW 21:24	SJC 22:58	50%	11%	1.8%	60%
AA 2228 American Flight history →	DFW 20:44	SFO 22:28	51%	14%	1.2%	20%
WN 843 Southwest	DAL 21:35	OAK 23:15	54%	16%	0.7%	no record
AA 1430 American Flight history →	DFW 19:28	SFO 21:10	54%	15%	1.3%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON