Today: WN 65 at 22:46 is the safest bet, 39% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 40–75%.

Safest bet today WN 65 DAL 22:46 → HOU 00:06 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time Riskiest AA 1929 DFW 16:51 → IAH 18:08 · 75% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Against a calm day 52% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 45% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 20 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 65 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 22:46	HOU 00:06	39%	10%	1.2%	50%
MQ 3864 Envoy	DFW 22:44	HOU 00:09	40%	11%	1.4%	no record
WN 25 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 12:30	HOU 13:45	42%	7%	2.1%	79%worse than usual
WN 55 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 20:29	HOU 21:49	42%	15%	1.3%	57%
WN 31 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 14:22	HOU 15:42	44%	10%	1.5%	80%worse than usual
AA 3583 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:33	IAH 15:48	45%	12%	0.7%	71%worse than usual
AA 3391 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:28	HOU 19:48	45%	16%	1.4%	68%worse than usual
AA 3351 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:34	HOU 19:53	45%	17%	1.8%	67%worse than usual
WN 49 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 18:35	HOU 19:50	46%	13%	1.4%	58%
OH 5576 PSA	DFW 14:05	IAH 15:23	47%	19%	0.9%	no record
WN 41 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:53	HOU 18:13	47%	14%	1.4%	68%worse than usual
WN 39 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 16:15	HOU 17:30	47%	14%	1.5%	69%worse than usual
MQ 3908 Envoy	DFW 18:11	IAH 19:25	48%	13%	0.8%	no record
WN 35 Southwest Flight history →	DAL 15:15	HOU 16:30	49%	11%	1.8%	71%worse than usual
WN 5079 Southwest	DAL 13:45	HOU 15:00	50%	9%	1.5%	no record
OO 6252 SkyWest	DFW 16:42	HOU 18:06	52%	24%	2.1%	no record
AA 5002 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 14:21	HOU 15:44	52%	23%	2.3%	72%worse than usual
AA 6385 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 16:56	HOU 18:19	53%	24%	2.2%	64%worse than usual
UA 1609 United Flight history →	DFW 17:32	IAH 19:06	55%	18%	0.5%	60%worse than usual
UA 2114 United Flight history →	DFW 19:34	IAH 20:55	55%	16%	0.7%	84%worse than usual
AA 3023 American	DFW 22:56	IAH 00:14	56%	20%	0.6%	no record
AA 4923 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:50	IAH 19:11	56%	16%	1.0%	71%worse than usual
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	58%	18%	0.6%	48%
AA 1397 American	DFW 12:28	IAH 13:15	58%	20%	1.0%	no record
AA 1914 American Flight history →	DFW 22:48	IAH 23:58	62%	15%	0.6%	45%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	DFW 16:01	IAH 17:18	67%	15%	0.4%	67%worse than usual
AA 1392 American Flight history →	DFW 18:36	IAH 19:54	67%	23%	0.8%	50%worse than usual
AA 2438 American Flight history →	DFW 17:18	IAH 18:32	69%	23%	0.6%	60%worse than usual
AA 1929 American Flight history →	DFW 16:51	IAH 18:08	75%	24%	0.6%	28%
UA 3985 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DFW 14:15	IAH 15:37	29%	17%	0.0%	71%
UA 4007 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DFW 17:24	IAH 18:48	33%	20%	0.0%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON