tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:12 pm at Washington); 4 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: American via JFK, leaving 18:23, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → DCA 18:23 → JFK 19:47AA 4629 · flown by Republic 1h 43m New York JFK 21:30 → LAX 00:54 +1AA 300 9h 31m 78% 47%
SouthwestDetails → DCA 19:55 → BNA 20:55WN 1428 1h 51m Nashville BNA 22:46 → LAX 01:14 +1WN 362 8h 19m 83% 36%
DeltaDetails → DCA 18:30 → ATL 20:35DL 850 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → LAX 00:30 +1DL 575 9h 00m 85% 24%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DCA 19:10 → ORD 20:32UA 1193 58m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 2060 7h 59m 65% 41%
AmericanDetails → DCA 20:06 → ORD 21:42AA 2903 48m Chicago ORD 22:30 → LAX 00:52 +1AA 1209 7h 46m 56% 32%
AmericanDetails → DCA 19:08 → DFW 21:34AA 1158 1h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:44 → LAX 00:04 +1AA 2038 7h 56m 59% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON