Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4629 LANDED 7:29 PM ET, ~19 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

YX 4629 · DCA → JFK

took off 6:49 PM ET · landed 7:29 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

84% chance · ±0 pts +21 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at JFK that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.13 in

JFK (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4629 · DCA → JFK

Odds over time