YX 4629 · DCA → JFK

departs 6:11 PM ET · arrives 7:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,967 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4629 · DCA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?