Today: AA 4694 at 21:07 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38–43%.

Safest bet today AA 4694 DCA 21:07 → MCI 22:57 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest OH 5423 DCA 20:17 → MCI 22:16 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 35% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4694 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DCA 21:07	MCI 22:57	20%	8%	0.5%	67%
WN 1331 Southwest	DCA 19:35	MCI 21:22	38%	16%	0.5%	no record
WN 3514 Southwest Flight history →	DCA 19:25	MCI 21:15	38%	16%	0.5%	43%
OH 5423 PSA	DCA 20:17	MCI 22:16	43%	17%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON