Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 50%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1621 at 14:48, 38%.

Safest bet today DL 1621 DCA 14:48 → MCO 17:16 · 38% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 648 DCA 18:51 → MCO 21:09 · 60% chance 15+ min late

Weather 50% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 1621 Delta	DCA 14:48	MCO 17:16	38%	12%	0.7%	no record
AA 2509 American Flight history →	DCA 13:55	MCO 16:30	42%	14%	0.9%	76%worse than usual
AA 2139 American Flight history →	DCA 20:07	MCO 22:31	50%	19%	0.9%	57%
WN 4833 Southwest	DCA 16:30	MCO 18:55	55%	23%	0.7%	no record
B6 2523 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 18:55	MCO 21:17	58%	30%	0.9%	62%worse than usual
WN 648 Southwest	DCA 18:51	MCO 21:09	60%	23%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON