Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 26–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 7 DCA 18:59 → SFO 21:56 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest UA 368 DCA 17:59 → SFO 20:55 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	26%	9%	0.5%	69%
UA 2166 United	DCA 18:05	SFO 21:12	30%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 368 United Flight history →	DCA 17:59	SFO 20:55	31%	9%	0.2%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	DCA 17:05 → ORD 18:30UA 654	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 20:04 → SFO 22:57UA 1495	8h 52m	80%	56%
American Details →	DCA 14:27 → ORD 15:51AA 2398	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 17:22 → SFO 20:05AA 3141	8h 38m	84%	56%
United Details →	DCA 15:30 → ORD 16:52UA 1325	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 18:22 → SFO 20:55UA 649	8h 25m	82%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON