Today: UA 1109 at 13:50 is the safest bet, 33% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–48%.

Safest bet today UA 1109 DEN 13:50 → BNA 17:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest WN 1488 DEN 18:45 → BNA 22:15 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 32% on time

Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1109 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	BNA 17:34	33%	10%	0.2%	72%
UA 1287 United	DEN 20:32	BNA 00:16	38%	14%	0.2%	no record
WN 1140 Southwest	DEN 15:16	BNA 18:51	42%	9%	0.1%	no record
WN 2597 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:55	BNA 19:30	43%	9%	0.1%	34%
UA 1300 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	BNA 21:13	45%	12%	0.2%	74%worse than usual
WN 2922 Southwest	DEN 20:27	BNA 00:00	46%	11%	0.1%	no record
WN 4888 Southwest	DEN 17:11	BNA 20:44	48%	12%	0.1%	no record
WN 1488 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:45	BNA 22:15	48%	11%	0.1%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON