Today: AA 420 at 15:11 is the safest bet, 46% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 49–65%.

Safest bet today AA 420 DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time Riskiest AA 1322 DEN 18:10 → DFW 21:18 · 65% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 53% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 48% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 420 American Flight history →	DEN 15:11	DFW 18:21	46%	23%	1.0%	69%worse than usual
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DEN 12:39	DFW 15:47	47%	19%	1.1%	64%worse than usual
UA 414 United Flight history →	DEN 15:42	DFW 18:48	48%	20%	0.5%	63%worse than usual
UA 578 United Flight history →	DEN 13:45	DFW 16:51	48%	20%	0.5%	76%worse than usual
UA 2230 United	DEN 15:42	DFW 18:46	48%	22%	0.5%	no record
UA 2239 United Flight history →	DEN 20:53	DFW 23:59	49%	15%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
F9 2632 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 21:17	DFW 00:23	54%	27%	1.4%	68%worse than usual
UA 1565 United Flight history →	DEN 18:53	DFW 21:59	58%	19%	0.7%	69%worse than usual
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DEN 16:23	DFW 19:34	58%	18%	0.9%	61%worse than usual
F9 2148 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 17:23	DFW 20:36	58%	27%	1.3%	57%worse than usual
F9 4464 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:09	DFW 19:15	61%	27%	1.4%	72%worse than usual
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DEN 18:10	DFW 21:18	65%	18%	1.0%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON