Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2819 at 17:39, 39%.

Safest bet today UA 2819 DEN 17:39 → SAT 20:54 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest WN 2073 DEN 19:20 → SAT 22:40 · 54% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Weather 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2819 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	SAT 20:54	39%	12%	0.2%	61%
UA 395 United Flight history →	DEN 20:39	SAT 23:55	46%	14%	0.2%	66%worse than usual
OO 5598 SkyWest	DEN 20:37	SAT 00:28	49%	14%	0.4%	no record
WN 2607 Southwest	DEN 19:20	SAT 22:34	51%	14%	0.1%	no record
WN 2073 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:20	SAT 22:40	54%	15%	0.1%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON