Today: AA 1208 at 10:17 is the safest bet, 39% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 42–61%.

Safest bet today AA 1208 DFW 10:17 → BUR 11:34 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 2597 DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1208 American Flight history →	DFW 10:17	BUR 11:34	39%	14%	0.5%	75%worse than usual
AA 1617 American Flight history →	DFW 10:56	BUR 12:05	42%	14%	0.5%	71%worse than usual
AA 2597 American Flight history →	DFW 20:46	BUR 21:58	61%	16%	1.3%	63%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON