Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:13 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 45–50% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 2251 DFW 19:37 → BWI 23:43 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time Riskiest AA 2805 DFW 15:25 → BWI 19:45 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 48% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 41% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2251 American Flight history →	DFW 19:37	BWI 23:43	45%	14%	0.7%	62%
AA 3004 American Flight history →	DFW 15:17	BWI 19:24	50%	16%	0.5%	57%
AA 2805 American Flight history →	DFW 15:25	BWI 19:45	50%	15%	0.5%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON