Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:29 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 4 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 1774 at 18:30, with a 45% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 1774 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	BZN 20:39	45%	18%	0.4%	56%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 18:12 → SLC 20:00DL 2812	3h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:05 → BZN 00:23 +1DL 2046	7h 11m	92%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 18:31 → MSP 21:00DL 2873	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 22:23 → BZN 23:52DL 2954	6h 21m	56%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON