Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:58 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 11 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Today: F9 4069 at 21:31 is the safest bet, 46% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 48–70%.

Safest bet today F9 4069 DFW 21:31 → DEN 22:55 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AA 1322 DFW 16:13 → DEN 17:19 · 70% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 47% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 11 flights that already left today are not shown.


F9 4069 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 21:31	DEN 22:55	46%	27%	1.0%	64%worse than usual
UA 248 United Flight history →	DFW 13:44	DEN 14:55	48%	15%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
AA 1462 American	DFW 12:20	DEN 13:00	48%	18%	0.8%	no record
F9 4463 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:27	DEN 21:40	50%	29%	1.0%	66%worse than usual
AA 1722 American	DFW 22:55	DEN 00:07	52%	19%	0.5%	no record
UA 1602 United Flight history →	DFW 18:45	DEN 20:15	54%	16%	0.4%	71%worse than usual
AA 577 American Flight history →	DFW 20:29	DEN 21:32	55%	22%	0.7%	50%
AA 420 American Flight history →	DFW 13:17	DEN 14:21	55%	22%	0.7%	77%worse than usual
AA 662 American Flight history →	DFW 22:45	DEN 23:50	56%	15%	0.5%	44%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DFW 14:26	DEN 15:30	60%	23%	0.7%	62%worse than usual
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DFW 16:50	DEN 18:20	62%	18%	0.3%	59%worse than usual
AA 2235 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	DEN 19:41	62%	22%	0.6%	46%
UA 309 United	DFW 18:18	DEN 19:26	63%	19%	0.4%	no record
F9 2631 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:54	DEN 16:05	64%	30%	1.0%	76%worse than usual
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DFW 16:13	DEN 17:19	70%	23%	0.6%	49%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON