Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:39 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 22 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 72%, against 46% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3023 at 22:55, 68%.

Safest bet today AA 3023 DFW 22:55 → IAH 00:14 · 68% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2209 DFW 21:10 → IAH 22:24 · 74% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Weather 72% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 46% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 22 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3023 American	DFW 22:55	IAH 00:14	68%	22%	0.9%	no record
AA 1914 American Flight history →	DFW 22:48	IAH 23:58	74%	22%	1.0%	45%worse than usual
AA 2209 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	IAH 22:24	74%	22%	0.8%	48%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON