Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:03 am at Dallas-Fort Worth); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60%, against 42% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2151 at 10:57, 53%.

Safest bet today AA 2151 DFW 10:57 → MCO 14:45 · 53% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2791 DFW 16:33 → MCO 20:25 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Weather 60% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 42% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 2151 American	DFW 10:57	MCO 14:45	53%	14%	1.3%	no record
AA 1312 American Flight history →	DFW 10:55	MCO 14:37	54%	15%	1.3%	59%worse than usual
AA 1615 American	DFW 12:12	MCO 15:57	54%	20%	1.3%	no record
AA 2097 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	MCO 15:44	56%	20%	1.3%	41%
F9 1952 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:30	MCO 17:23	58%	32%	2.0%	73%worse than usual
AA 1288 American Flight history →	DFW 13:06	MCO 16:57	60%	24%	1.3%	60%worse than usual
AA 1692 American	DFW 13:45	MCO 17:35	60%	25%	1.3%	no record
AA 1336 American Flight history →	DFW 20:35	MCO 00:21	61%	27%	1.7%	52%worse than usual
F9 2886 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 20:14	MCO 00:08	62%	37%	2.4%	67%worse than usual
AA 2117 American Flight history →	DFW 14:40	MCO 18:30	63%	28%	1.2%	56%worse than usual
F9 4192 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 21:50	MCO 01:42	64%	22%	5.3%	79%worse than usual
AA 2974 American Flight history →	DFW 17:18	MCO 21:10	65%	24%	1.3%	51%worse than usual
AA 2186 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	MCO 22:17	65%	27%	1.8%	46%worse than usual
AA 2791 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	MCO 20:25	67%	25%	1.3%	44%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON