Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:26 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 15 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 56%, against 40% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3531 at 19:28, 36%.

Safest bet today AA 3531 DFW 19:28 → ORD 22:15 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time Riskiest AA 1290 DFW 16:36 → ORD 18:54 · 72% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 56% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 40% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 15 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3531 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:28	ORD 22:15	36%	10%	0.7%	64%
AA 2346 American Flight history →	DFW 21:00	ORD 23:39	42%	12%	0.5%	63%
UA 1517 United Flight history →	DFW 19:30	ORD 22:13	48%	14%	0.5%	68%worse than usual
AA 1620 American Flight history →	DFW 21:32	ORD 23:50	48%	12%	0.5%	56%
AA 1193 American Flight history →	DFW 22:12	ORD 00:50	48%	12%	0.5%	55%
AA 3790 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:15	ORD 21:38	48%	9%	0.6%	66%worse than usual
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DFW 14:15	ORD 16:57	50%	14%	0.3%	63%worse than usual
AA 2988 American Flight history →	DFW 13:10	ORD 15:51	54%	13%	0.5%	66%worse than usual
F9 3244 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 22:16	ORD 00:47	54%	18%	1.2%	64%worse than usual
UA 2299 United Flight history →	DFW 16:13	ORD 18:55	58%	15%	0.4%	57%worse than usual
UA 1564 United Flight history →	DFW 17:47	ORD 20:30	58%	15%	0.4%	60%worse than usual
AA 2656 American	DFW 18:20	ORD 20:47	60%	17%	0.5%	no record
AA 1424 American Flight history →	DFW 18:38	ORD 21:22	60%	16%	0.5%	39%
AA 2257 American	DFW 17:45	ORD 20:34	60%	14%	0.5%	no record
AA 2474 American Flight history →	DFW 16:50	ORD 19:44	60%	17%	0.6%	55%worse than usual
F9 1342 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:25	ORD 16:08	60%	19%	0.8%	75%worse than usual
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DFW 17:34	ORD 20:29	62%	17%	0.6%	41%
F9 3242 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:43	ORD 20:27	63%	20%	1.2%	63%worse than usual
UA 2275 United	DFW 17:53	ORD 20:15	64%	16%	0.4%	no record
AA 3264 American	DFW 15:49	ORD 18:26	69%	18%	0.5%	no record
AA 1290 American Flight history →	DFW 16:36	ORD 18:54	72%	17%	0.5%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON