Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2474 · DFW → ORD

departs 4:50 PM CT · arrives 7:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2474 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?