Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 2474 · DFW → ORD

departs 4:50 PM CT · arrives 7:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
34%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.36 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2474 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?