Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2474 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 2474 · DFW → ORD

departs 4:50 PM CT · arrives 7:44 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.52 in

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2474 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?