Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:40 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 5 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 60%, against 49% on a calm day. Safest: AA 680 at 17:55, 58%.

Nonstops today


AA 680 American Flight history →	DFW 17:55	PIT 21:48	58%	24%	0.5%	55%worse than usual
AA 1761 American Flight history →	DFW 20:08	PIT 23:54	62%	24%	0.5%	62%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 16:51 → ATL 20:19DL 2143	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351	6h 59m	83%	26%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 16:50 → ORD 19:44AA 2474	58m Chicago	ORD 20:42 → PIT 23:23AA 4527 · flown by Republic	5h 33m	41%	33%
United Details →	DFW 17:32 → IAH 19:07UA 1609	56m Houston	IAH 20:03 → PIT 23:59UA 1591	5h 27m	38%	26%
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	50m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic	5h 12m	19%	15%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON