Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:10 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 10 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today: AA 3665 at 22:11 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33–42%.

Safest bet today AA 3665 DFW 22:11 → SGF 23:34 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest MQ 3591 DFW 19:18 → SGF 20:09 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 10 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3665 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:11	SGF 23:34	26%	8%	0.6%	78%
AA 4092 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:23	SGF 21:54	33%	9%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
MQ 3591 Envoy	DFW 19:18	SGF 20:09	42%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON