Today: AA 2046 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 47–50%.

Safest bet today AA 2046 DFW 09:10 → SJC 11:06 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 1940 DFW 21:24 → SJC 22:58 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 39% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 37% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2046 American Flight history →	DFW 09:10	SJC 11:06	26%	8%	0.5%	77%
AA 2572 American Flight history →	DFW 09:15	SJC 10:49	31%	9%	0.5%	76%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	DFW 11:56	SJC 13:52	39%	13%	0.6%	75%worse than usual
AA 436 American Flight history →	DFW 12:00	SJC 13:33	42%	14%	0.5%	61%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 20:15	SJC 22:10	47%	12%	1.2%	66%worse than usual
AA 1940 American Flight history →	DFW 21:24	SJC 22:58	50%	11%	1.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON