Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:27 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 13 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 65%, against 42% on a calm day. Safest: AA 3223 at 16:33, 62%.

Safest bet today AA 3223 DFW 16:33 → SNA 17:50 · 62% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 806 DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22 · 68% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Weather 65% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 42% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 13 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 16:33	SNA 17:50	62%	14%	1.4%	80%worse than usual
AA 348 American Flight history →	DFW 21:16	SNA 22:24	65%	13%	1.3%	74%worse than usual
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	68%	19%	1.4%	68%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON