Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:21 pm at Dallas-Fort Worth); 8 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: AA 3049 at 22:12 is the safest bet, 55% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 58–67%.

Safest bet today AA 3049 DFW 22:12 → STL 23:58 · 55% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time Riskiest AA 2487 DFW 17:59 → STL 19:54 · 67% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 61% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 51% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 3049 American Flight history →	DFW 22:12	STL 23:58	55%	18%	0.4%	52%
AA 1445 American	DFW 21:51	STL 23:45	58%	19%	0.5%	no record
AA 2491 American Flight history →	DFW 16:39	STL 18:30	60%	24%	0.6%	55%worse than usual
AA 1010 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	STL 21:48	61%	27%	0.6%	64%worse than usual
AA 2761 American Flight history →	DFW 18:02	STL 19:53	63%	27%	0.7%	56%worse than usual
AA 2487 American Flight history →	DFW 17:59	STL 19:54	67%	29%	0.7%	50%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON