tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:22 pm at Detroit); 7 already left
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 3988 at 21:38, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3988 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → DTW 21:38 IAD 23:13 30% 11% 0.2% 65%
UA 6362 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record DTW 19:45 IAD 21:20 22% 10% 3.9% 78%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DTW 18:20 → ORD 18:57UA 5264 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Chicago ORD 21:40 → IAD 00:45 +1UA 2766 6h 25m 90% 73%
UnitedDetails → DTW 19:45 → ORD 20:22UA 5483 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m Chicago ORD 21:42 → IAD 00:35 +1UA 1922 4h 50m 91% 71%
UnitedDetails → DTW 16:29 → ORD 17:00UA 4673 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m Chicago ORD 20:11 → IAD 23:09UA 304 6h 40m 92% 70%
AmericanDetails → DTW 16:40 → CLT 18:36AA 2735 4h 00m Charlotte CLT 22:36 → IAD 00:07 +1AA 2608 7h 27m 94% 61%
DeltaDetails → DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 6h 32m 92% 57%
UnitedDetails → DTW 16:48 → EWR 18:42UA 3666 · flown by Republic 3h 08m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 6h 31m 95% 50%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DTW 19:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1794 50m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242 4h 12m 57% 36%
UnitedDetails → DTW 19:05 → EWR 20:59UA 3644 · flown by Republic 51m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 4h 14m 46% 24%
UnitedDetails → DTW 16:48 → EWR 18:42UA 3666 · flown by Republic 47m Newark EWR 19:29 → IAD 21:00UA 2677 4h 12m 50% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON