Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1242 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1242 · CLT → IAD

departs 10:45 PM ET · arrives 12:10 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at CLT that day

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ IAD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.34 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1242 · CLT → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?