Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1242 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2 Today

AA 1242 · CLT → IAD

departs 10:45 PM ET · arrives 12:10 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1242 · CLT → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?