Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:22 pm at Eugene)

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 3260 at 17:50, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AS 3260 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	EUG 17:50	BUR 20:09	24%	11%	0.6%	87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	EUG 16:40 → SLC 19:41DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339	5h 08m	92%	67%
Alaska Details →	EUG 16:00 → PDX 16:51AS 3041 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Portland	PDX 17:57 → BUR 20:18AS 559	4h 18m	90%	64%
United Details →	EUG 13:59 → SFO 15:35UA 2077	2h 19m San Francisco	SFO 17:54 → BUR 19:20UA 1321	5h 21m	93%	60%
Southwest Details →	EUG 14:20 → DEN 17:50WN 2843	2h 41m Denver	DEN 20:31 → BUR 22:05WN 4390	7h 45m	98%	50%
Alaska Details →	EUG 13:38 → SEA 14:55AS 3360 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 17:58 → BUR 20:39AS 1372	7h 01m	84%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON