Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 55%, against 35% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5718 at 20:40, 50%.

Safest bet today DL 5718 EWR 20:40 → BOS 22:18 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest UA 2763 EWR 18:15 → BOS 19:42 · 61% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Weather 55% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 8 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	EWR 20:40	BOS 22:18	50%	20%	1.2%	67%worse than usual
UA 2433 United Flight history →	EWR 16:44	BOS 18:09	52%	20%	1.0%	69%worse than usual
B6 9008 JetBlue	EWR 21:05	BOS 22:16	53%	27%	1.2%	no record
UA 2058 United Flight history →	EWR 20:25	BOS 21:53	58%	28%	1.0%	61%worse than usual
UA 1117 United	EWR 21:35	BOS 23:02	60%	27%	0.9%	no record
UA 2763 United Flight history →	EWR 18:15	BOS 19:42	61%	29%	1.2%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON