tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:52 pm at Newark)
Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: United via O'Hare, leaving 16:45, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → EWR 16:45 → ORD 18:34UA 661 2h 46m Chicago ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675 7h 43m 92% 68%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:01 → MSP 16:57DL 2895 2h 48m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → BWI 23:13DL 2918 8h 12m 93% 65%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:50 → DTW 18:51DL 2573 2h 54m Detroit DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715 6h 28m 92% 64%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:10 → BOS 16:36DL 5829 · flown by Republic 3h 59m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 7h 19m 98% 52%
DeltaDetails → EWR 16:29 → ATL 19:14DL 2322 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590 8h 10m 96% 51%
DeltaDetails → EWR 15:21 → ATL 17:54DL 2312 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 21:36 → BWI 23:42DL 2670 8h 21m 96% 49%
JetBlueDetails → EWR 15:25 → FLL 18:27B6 685 2h 32m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:59 → BWI 23:27B6 2994 8h 02m 92% 44%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10UA 254 1h 10m Chicago ORD 21:20 → BWI 00:28 +1UA 675 6h 13m 59% 43%
AmericanDetails → EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811 1h 13m Charlotte CLT 22:45 → BWI 00:14 +1AA 1318 4h 45m 59% 36%
DeltaDetails → EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430 51m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590 5h 40m 45% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON