Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:53 pm at Newark); 6 already left

Sunday, October 4 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 49–54% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1611 United Flight history →	EWR 18:35	CLE 20:24	49%	19%	0.5%	75%worse than usual
UA 2398 United Flight history →	EWR 19:55	CLE 21:45	54%	24%	0.6%	70%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	EWR 18:15 → ORD 20:10UA 254	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → CLE 23:49UA 457	5h 34m	57%	38%
American Details →	EWR 19:29 → CLT 21:32AA 1811	1h 18m Charlotte	CLT 22:50 → CLE 00:29 +1AA 2260	5h 00m	56%	34%
Delta Details →	EWR 18:59 → ATL 21:54DL 2430	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320	5h 50m	55%	20%

No one-ticket connection fits with layovers up to 4 hours that day. Try any airlines.

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 4 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON